Axis Securities Picks 3 Stocks As Nifty Stays Rangebound

A flat market can still make investors restless by 9:30 in the morning.

On Friday, May 22, Indian stocks barely moved at the open. The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex rose 0.1 percent to 75,260.39. The National Stock Exchange’s Nifty 50 inched up 0.07 percent to 23,671.20.

That sounds calm. But under the surface, traders were watching crude oil, the rupee, foreign selling, and talks between the United States and Iran. For a retail investor, this is exactly the sort of market where stock-specific calls start getting attention.

Markets open with caution

The Nifty 50 has been stuck in a tight range for nearly a week. Rajesh Palviya, senior vice-president for technical and derivatives research at Axis Securities, said the index has moved between 23,800 and 23,300.

In plain English, the market has not chosen a clear direction yet. Buyers are stepping in near lower levels. Sellers are appearing when the index moves higher.

Palviya said 23,300 to 23,100 remains the key support area. If Nifty slips below that zone, it could fall toward 23,000 or even 22,500.

That matters for anyone holding equity mutual funds or direct stocks. A 2 percent move in the index may look small on television. But on a Rs 5 lakh equity portfolio, it means about Rs 10,000 moving either way.

Broader markets looked better than the main indices. Mid-cap shares rose 0.3 percent, while small-cap shares gained 0.2 percent. Fourteen of sixteen major sectoral indices traded in the green.

This tells us something useful. The headline index looked sleepy, but traders were still taking selective bets.

Crude and rupee ease nerves

The big global worry came from oil. Crude prices hovered near $105 per barrel as investors tracked United States and Iran talks.

The dispute centred on Iran’s uranium stockpile and control over the Strait of Hormuz. That strait is a key oil route. If tension rises there, oil prices usually react fast.

For India, costly crude is never just a market headline. India imports most of its oil. Higher crude can hurt the rupee, widen the import bill, and push up fuel-linked costs.

That eventually reaches households. Transport costs rise. Companies spend more on logistics. Some of that pressure can show up in food and daily goods.

There was some relief on Friday morning. Brent crude slipped below $105 per barrel. The rupee also recovered to 96.20 against the US dollar from 96.96 earlier.

A stronger rupee helps importers and eases pressure on foreign-currency payments. For students, travellers, and businesses paying in dollars, even small moves matter.

Foreign institutional investors remained cautious. Exchange data showed they sold Indian equities worth Rs 1,891.21 crore on Thursday. When foreign investors sell heavily, markets often struggle to rise cleanly.

Still, domestic investors have changed the old rhythm. SIP money and retail participation now cushion markets more than before. That is why foreign selling hurts, but does not always break the market.

Three stock calls stand out

In this quiet but tense market, Palviya highlighted three stock ideas. His calls were based on charts, volume, and price trends.

The first was Deepak Fertilisers. The stock traded around Rs 1,392. Palviya said it crossed a key resistance zone near Rs 1,320 to Rs 1,340 with strong volumes.

Resistance is simply a price area where a stock has struggled earlier. When it moves above that zone with strong buying, traders see it as a bullish sign.

He said the stock trades above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages. These averages show the stock’s trend over different time periods.

When a stock stays above all these lines, traders read it as strength. Palviya placed the expected upside at Rs 1,460 to Rs 1,520. He placed support at Rs 1,350 to Rs 1,320.

The second idea was Samvardhana Motherson International, trading near Rs 137. Palviya said the stock crossed a downtrend line around Rs 133 with strong volumes.

A downtrend line marks a falling pattern on a chart. Crossing it can suggest that sellers are losing control.

He placed the upside range at Rs 143 to Rs 152. The downside support zone stood at Rs 133 to Rs 129.

The third stock was Goodluck India, trading around Rs 1,423. Palviya said the stock has remained strong across time frames.

He noted buying near the 20-day moving average around Rs 1,300. That means investors stepped in when the stock came near a short-term support level.

His upside range for Goodluck India stood at Rs 1,500 to Rs 1,580. The support zone was Rs 1,360 to Rs 1,310.

What investors should watch

These are technical calls, not guarantees. Technical analysis studies price patterns, volume, and trend indicators. It does not predict earnings, management decisions, or sudden global shocks.

That distinction matters. A trader may use these levels for short-term decisions. A long-term investor should still ask basic questions about business quality, debt, cash flows, and valuation.

Retail investors often get tempted by clean price targets. A stock at Rs 1,392 with a target of Rs 1,520 sounds simple. But the harder question is risk.

If the support level breaks, the trade changes. That is why stop-loss discipline matters more than excitement around upside.

The wider market also needs a breakout. If Nifty moves above 23,800 with strength, sentiment could improve. If it slips below 23,300, traders may turn defensive.

Oil will remain the quiet villain in the background. Any fresh flare-up around Iran could lift crude again. That would pressure the rupee and make foreign investors more cautious.

For now, the market is not shouting. It is waiting. In such phases, stock selection matters more than broad optimism.

For ordinary investors, the lesson is simple. Do not treat every market call as a command to buy. Treat it as a reason to study. In a sideways market, patience can be as valuable as speed.