Ventura Bets On Banks, Logistics As Nifty Slides 9%

A Rs 5 lakh Nifty-style portfolio is down roughly Rs 45,000 this year.

That is the plain meaning of a 9 percent fall in the National Stock Exchange’s Nifty 50 during the first half of 2026. For retail investors, this is not a chart problem. It is school fees, home loan comfort, retirement plans, and that nagging question: should I buy now or wait?

Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research at Ventura, believes the market may have room to recover in the next one to two years. His latest long-term picks show expected upside between 19 percent and 58 percent, but the bigger story is not just targets. It is where India’s next profit pools may shift.

Why the market looks bruised

The first half of 2026 has been rough for investors. The Nifty 50 fell about 9 percent as oil prices swung, the rupee weakened, and foreign investors pulled money out.

The Middle East conflict added another layer of worry. India imports most of its crude oil, so every jump in prices hits the economy fast. It can push up petrol, diesel, freight, and finally household bills.

Bolinjkar expects sentiment to improve if crude settles near $75 a barrel. That view depends on a possible easing of tensions between the US and Iran. Markets like peace because oil becomes easier to price.

For a small investor, this matters more than it sounds. Lower oil pressure can support the rupee, reduce inflation fears, and give companies cleaner earnings visibility.

Banks, logistics and the household wallet

Among the large familiar names, Axis Bank stands out in Ventura’s list. Bolinjkar has put a target price of Rs 1,934 on the stock, against a previous close of Rs 1,345.70. That suggests 44 percent upside.

His case rests on steady loan growth, better deposits, and a cleaner mix across corporate, small business, and rural-focused banking. Axis Bank’s advances and deposits grew around 14 percent and 15 percent year-on-year.

The bank’s small business, SME, and mid-corporate loans grew faster at 22 percent. That segment now makes up about 24 percent of total loans.

In simple terms, Axis is trying to earn from a wider base. That matters when rate cycles turn and borrowers become more selective.

Delhivery is another bet on a changing India. Bolinjkar has set a target of Rs 645, against Rs 472.05 earlier. That points to 37 percent upside.

The logistics firm covers 18,838 pin codes and operates across parcel delivery, part-truck loads, full-truck loads, supply chains, and cross-border movement. That reach matters as more businesses outsource delivery.

For a small seller shipping from Indore, Surat, or Guwahati, logistics quality decides customer trust. A delayed parcel can cost repeat business. A smoother network can help formal players win share from fragmented operators.

Power, EVs and the capex cycle

Bolinjkar’s list also leans heavily into India’s power and infrastructure build-out. CG Power and Industrial Solutions has a target of Rs 1,137, implying 19 percent upside from Rs 952.15.

He sees the company benefiting from electrification, railway spending, and grid upgrades. Its order book stands at Rs 27,484 crore, which gives some visibility on future sales.

CG Power also plans to raise transformer capacity from 40,000 MVA to 85,000 MVA by FY28. Think of transformers as traffic managers for electricity. Without them, generation cannot move smoothly to homes, factories, and trains.

JSW Energy has a target of Rs 767, implying 32 percent upside. Bolinjkar pointed to its contracted power pipeline and rising renewable mix.

The company’s installed capacity is around 13.45 GW in FY26. Its locked-in capacity stands at 32.1 GW, already above its FY30 target of 30 GW.

Storage is the key detail here. JSW Energy is building battery storage and pumped storage capacity. That helps supply renewable power even when the sun sets or wind drops.

Ather Energy is Ventura’s two-wheeler electric vehicle bet. The target is Rs 1,598, against Rs 1,140.55, suggesting 40 percent upside.

Bolinjkar expects electric two-wheeler penetration to rise from about 9 percent now to nearly 30 percent by FY30. Ather sold about 2.63 lakh units in FY26, up nearly 70 percent year-on-year.

The company’s Rizta scooter targets families, while the 450 range addresses premium buyers. Its network includes about 700 experience centres and over 6,000 charging points.

For Indian families, the EV question is no longer only about climate. It is about monthly running cost, charging access, and resale confidence.

The riskier growth bets

Ventura’s highest upside call is Aurionpro Solutions. Bolinjkar has a target of Rs 1,352, against Rs 857.20, implying 58 percent upside.

The company works across banking technology, lending platforms, transit systems, and data centre design. Its software products, including iCashPro and SmartLender, can bring recurring revenue through licences and upgrades.

That sounds attractive, but investors should watch execution. Smaller technology companies can grow fast, but project delays and margin pressure can punish valuations quickly.

Hindustan Zinc has a target of Rs 829, implying 55 percent upside from Rs 533.15. Bolinjkar cited its leadership in zinc, lead, and silver.

The company controls about 77 percent of India’s primary zinc market. It also has more than 90 percent share in primary lead.

Commodity stocks look cheap when prices support them, and expensive when cycles turn. Investors should track metal prices as closely as company results.

Urban Company has a target of Rs 185, implying 41 percent upside. Bolinjkar sees room in India’s under-organised home services market.

The company operates across more than 60 service categories and over 500 micro-markets. New areas like InstaHelp and Native could widen its base.

Tilaknagar Industries, with 31 percent potential upside, reflects another trend: premium consumption. Its Imperial Blue acquisition reduces dependence on brandy and gives it a wider whisky play.

Shaily Engineering Plastics has a target of Rs 3,620, implying 25 percent upside. Bolinjkar linked its growth to drug-delivery devices used in injectable medicines, including GLP-1 therapies.

This list is useful, but not a shopping basket. Target prices are estimates, not promises. The smarter question for retail investors is simple: can I hold through bad quarters if the story takes time?

The next six months may turn on oil, foreign flows, earnings, and the rupee. For ordinary investors, the lesson is old but still valuable. Buy businesses you understand, spread your risk, and do not let a target price do the thinking for you.